National polls are virtually worthless, but this just isn’t good news no matter how you look at it.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.
It’s not time to panic until this map starts to change.
UPDATE:
I probably should have pointed this out when I first posted it. McCain’s lead is ten points among likely voters.
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
Every four years, Democratic presidential candidates say that young people and new voters, who may not show up in polls, are going to carry them to victory. That’s how Presidents Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry won. Obama is apparently counting on the same strategy.
