This is very, very bad news. There are still six weeks until the election, but for a Democrat to lose Pennsylvania would be like a Republican losing Ohio. The math just doesn’t work without it.
McCain is also within a point in Minnesota, which is critical to Obama’s chances.
On the consolation prize front, Virginia is tied. Ordinarily, having Virginia legitimately in play would be astoundingly good news for Obama, but without Pennsylvania and Minnesota wrapped up, it’s virtually meaningless. Since Obama’s got to keep spending money in expensive markets like Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis, he’s got less to spend in places like DC and Richmond. The question now is whether he can play defense in blue states and offense in the red or purple ones he needs to get to 270.
McCain’s come from behind. He did it by lying. Obama has an opportunity to hit back in states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and other battlegrounds. He can do that with ads pointing out that McCain’s chief strategist said the campaign wouldn’t be about issues — i.e., that McCain has admitted that he can’t win if he tells the truth about his 90% love of George Bush’s policies – and that the only way he and running mate, George Hamilton, can win is by lying about Barack Obama. He might also point out that this is precisely the kind of thing that got us where we are with George Bush.
Obama’s first ad hitting back wasn’t very impressive. It didn’t make clear what the lies were and cited opinion writers instead of neutral fact-checkers as the source of the “lying” charge. In reporting on Palin’s “thanks but no thanks for that bridge to nowhere” lie she uses in her stump speech, CNN, ABC and others I’ve seen have begun including in their reports that her line is misleading — that she was for it before she was against it. Why not use those clips in his ads?
On the other hand, this is Obama’s best ad yet and I hope he’s running it in Pennsylvania:
[youtube 6reQLzgywzk]
