Here’s his site this morning:
Gallup does, in fact, find that early voters are about evenly split. Nationwide. So in Gallup’s poll, Virginia, California, North Carolina, Texas, and Alabama all get averaged together. Obama might be up 51%-49% in Indiana and McCain might be leading Obama 51%-49% in Mississippi. In this poll, that makes the race even.
Back on Earth, though, Mississippi’s six electoral votes aren’t in doubt and aren’t being contested. Indiana, by contrast, could decide the outcome.
Oh, and, by the way:
Based on historical data, even a tie in early voting isn’t good news for Republicans.
Early voters have tended to be “more Republican than their Election Day peers,” McDonald said. “That’s not true looking at these numbers now.”
