Barack Obama is shown with an edge against John McCain in a North Dakota presidential race that has narrowed to a statistical tie, according to a new Forum poll.
The survey shows Obama squeaking past McCain, 45 percent to 43 percent, a lead that falls within the poll’s margin of error and therefore indicates a dead heat, according to political analysts.
I’m extremely skeptical, but this is consistent with national polling. It also contains this:
Another troubling sign in the poll for McCain, who has styled himself as a maverick who is not a clone of President Bush: McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans.
As I noted yesterday:
. . . With his slide in the polls, his base of support is crumbling. That would make sense since in an attempt to be all things to all people, he angered economic conservatives by suggesting that the US socialize mortgages. Elsewhere, Republicans are already beginning to blame him for what they view as an inevitable loss.
I’ve been saying that this race isn’t over and that it’s going to get much closer as November 4th nears. I still believe that. But I can’t imagine a reason other than extremely bad internal numbers that would cause the McCain campaign to lurch this far to the right when it should be moving to the middle.
Also interesting is that North Dakota has swung wildly since the last poll was taken there less than a month ago:
The last publicly reported North Dakota presidential poll, taken Sept. 16-17, showed McCain led Obama 53 percent to 40 percent, the latest in a string of surveys this year showing the Republican was ahead in North Dakota.
That was just as the economy was beginning to crater. The crisis and the candidates’ reactions to it have turned the numbers around.
If McCain starts running a better campaign, has a good debate performance or events beyond his control develop in a way that inure to his benefit, all of this can change, even if subtly. With three weeks and a day left, McCain still has time to climb back and regain the three to five points he likely needs in places like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. It can’t possibly be enough, but it’ll be enough to make the race close — or at least closer than it is now.
Still, this is just amazing news.
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