Electoral-vote.com averages all of the major state-by-state polls and produces a daily map of the electoral college. Today, it looks like this:
There’s just no way this holds up until November 4th. Only two weeks ago, that same map looked this way:
Between the two, the polls picked up fallout from the economic crisis, serious doubts about Sarah Palin , and growing confidence in Obama based on his first debate performance. That was in a span of two weeks. More than a month remains until November 4th.
There’s no doubt that John McCain is behind – even way behind. But with the tremendous shifts we’ve already seen in short periods of time in this race, making up that ground is not inconceivable. In 1988, for example, Michael Dukakis was ahead going into a debate with George HW Bush. He was asked whether he would favor the death penalty for his wife’s hypothetical rapist and murderer. He said that he wouldn’t, but instead wanted to understand the crime as an outcry by a misunderstood lad who didn’t receive enough attention from his mother. He dropped six points overnight. Obama’s no Dukakis, but he’s not infallable either. One false move in a debate or stump speech and it’s a whole new ballgame. This race is far from over.
