On October 3, Politico reported that the McCain campaign had hung its hopes on three states:
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says.
Those were considered swing states in 2000 and 2004, but George W. Bush lost them both times.
“Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,” a McCain official said. “These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.”
I wonder if the campaign would say the same today:
Minnesota: Obama 51%, McCain 40%
Wisconsin: Obama 54%, McCain 37%
Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 41%
At least McCain can count on his base in deep red states like West Virginia and Arkansas:
We moved Missouri from Lean McCain to Toss-up; Oregon and Washington from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and West Virginia from Likely McCain to Lean McCain. Something’s happening in West Virginia — yes, West Virginia — because of the economic angst. Obama’s been buying a bunch of TV time in markets that bleed into West Virginia, and the numbers have been closing for a time. By the way, political analyst Charlie Cook is moving West Virginia all the way to Toss-up. If that state is on the move, could Arkansas be far behind?
D’oh!
