On October 9th, I wrote that “with nearly a month to go, there’s time for the media to move beyond the the economic crisis, as dire and serious as it is. When that happens, the soft support Obama’s picked up over the last couple of weeks will ebb.”
It may be starting. CNN’s Poll of Polls, which averages all of the major surveys finds that Obama’s lead has fallen by two points. A Gallup poll of “traditional likely voters” has Obama leading by only two — within the poll’s margin of error. Nate Silver criticizes the poll because it isn’t as reflective of the likely electorate as others — even Gallup’s own alternate surveys.
Silver’s criticism might be right, but I think it misses the bigger point: the race is tightening. The alternate Gallup survey cited by Silver as being more reflective of the electorate has Obama leading McCain 49-43. Last week, that same poll had Obama ahead 51-41. The trend is obvious:
Over the next few days, look for major media stories about how: (i) Obama may be blowing it; (ii) voters are feeling buyer’s remorse; (iii) McCain has been counted out before; and (iv) voters are giving McCain a second look. Just watch — it’s gonna happen.
As I said on the 9th, I’d still much rather be us than them (any day of the week and not just because of the polls). But anyone who thinks this election is in the bag is just dead wrong.
UPDATE:
on Oct 19th, 2008 at 9:49 am
[...] been writing about the inevitable tightening of the presidential race. This is from Electoral-Vote.com: [...]
on Oct 20th, 2008 at 11:42 am
[...] October 17th: The Arrival of the McCain Resurgence [...]