The final national polls are in.  Obama is winning every single one of them by margins of between five and 13 points.  McCain trails Obama in every recent poll in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. To win, he likely needs to win not one but all of those states. While Nate Silver sees “a hair’s worth of tightening”...

I got a lot of crap on October 9th when I said that McCain would make a comeback. It gives me no joy to report that I was right: Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47% 10/26-28,08; 3,000 LV 2% GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 46 Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D) 10/22-23, 23-28,08 1000 LV 3.1% Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000 Obama 50, McCain 44 10/26-28, 08; 1,100 LV...

Via Pollster.com: Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg 10/24-27/08 Mode: Live Telephone Interviews (source) Florida 639 LV, 4% Obama 50, McCain 43 Ohio 644 LV, 4% Obama 49, McCain 40 McCain continues to make a big play for Pennsylvania, hoping for a breakout there. If these Florida and Ohio numbers are right, Obama could lose Pennsylvania (and North Carolina,...

Here’s his site this morning: Gallup does, in fact, find that early voters are about evenly split. Nationwide.  So in Gallup’s poll, Virginia, California, North Carolina, Texas, and Alabama all get averaged together.  Obama might be up 51%-49% in Indiana and McCain might be leading Obama 51%-49% in Mississippi. In this poll, that makes the race...

From CNN: With two weeks and one day until election day, a new national poll of likely voters suggests the race for the White House may be tightening up. In a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday, 51 percent of likely voters questioned Friday through Sunday back Barack Obama for president, with 46 percent supporting John McCain. That 5 point...